ATS & Home Field Advantage

They say that fine art imitates nature.  It has balance and universal appeal.

In the world of wagering on sports that balancing act also comes into play.  The old NASCAR expression, ‘what comes around, goes around’ comes to mind.

No matter how out of whack the numbers get or how long a winning streak lasts, it always seems to come back around and balance out in the end. The one sided trends will usually right themselves given time. The job for bettors is to figure out or simply guess when a particular run of bad luck is likely to end.

At some point the whole thing is likely to flip over and the ‘luck’ starts running the other way. In wagering it is a matter of jumping on the ‘other’ side before value of the move is negated.

Take for example the current home team ATS trend in the NFL. Hosts are 57-36-0 SU and 50-40-3 ATS (55.56 percent) heading into Sunday’s Week 7 schedule, including a 32-24-3 ATS (57.14 percent) record for home favorites.

Actually, week six in the NFL saw a reversal of the general trend when home teams only went 6 for 9 ATS.

It could be that the tide is turning here as well. It has been observed that many one sided trends in the early part of the season do a complete 180 degree turn at some point and actually go the other way in the latter half of the season.  Just like in nature, these things have a way of balancing themselves out over time.

Thursday Night Football saw the Arizona Cardinals get blown away by the visiting Seattle Seahawks, 34-22, failing to cover as 4.5-point home underdogs. And last week, home teams took a nose dive, finishing Week 6 with a 6-9 ATS record.

Other Week 7 action saw the Jets (+3.5) outlast the Patriots in an overtime to win at home, 30-27.  But then, Miami, playing at home as 7.5 point favorites were upset by the Buffalo Bills, 23-21 and the Lions (-2.5) also lose at home to the Bengals 27-24.

Peter Childs of Sportsbook.com told reporters, “Trends like this always come back to the mean and if anything, we expect to see more teams cover based on regression.  Now, if the public starts supporting this trend with their money, we will adjust but we haven’t seen a change in their betting behavior based on that 57% ATS by the home team.”